当地时间2026年9月16日，美联储 announced its decision to raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%—4.00%, aligning with market expectations. Despite pressure from Trump for significant rate cuts, the Fed, under the leadership of Walsh, chose to proceed with the hike, obtaining unanimous support from 12 officials. This marks the first tightening of policy since July 2023.

Walsh continued to communicate carefully, asserting that this rate increase was not a result of "market-driven pressures," but rather a necessary step to "remove accommodation" rather than "enhance restrictions," likely aiming to mitigate potential negative impacts of the hike on the economy and markets. Following the announcement, market reactions indicated further tightening: the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose from 4.95% back over 5%; the dollar index climbed from 99.7 to 100.3; international gold prices fell from approximately $4,350 per ounce to around $4,265; and major U.S. stock indices dropped substantially.

Understanding the Fed's motivation behind the renewed rate hike requires a deeper look at certain key factors. In addition to Walsh's recurring emphasis on economic resilience and persistent inflation, two significant contexts stand out: first, fluctuating geopolitical tensions have caused a rebound in oil prices, with international oil prices surpassing $100, extending higher than the levels seen after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict; second, central banks in Europe and Japan have already initiated rate hikes, which has intensified market expectations for a Fed hike, pushing up Treasury yields in advance. If the Fed remained passive, concerns may arise regarding potential "mistakes" leading to larger future rate increases, which would further jeopardize the stability of both the bond and financial markets. 球友会

Determining a "reasonable" level for U.S. policy rates remains challenging, largely due to the current K-shaped economic divergence driven by AI, rendering traditional economic cycle assessment methods ineffective. While AI-demand shocks have notably bolstered U.S. GDP growth, they have not significantly impacted employment rates. The disparity between GDP performance and the job market means judgments on reasonable interest rates depend heavily on selected indicators. Presently, the current interest rate levels exert "restrictive" effects on traditional sectors and most groups, yet they do not impact the AI industry and a select few. A "compromise" market rate could potentially exacerbate this K-shaped divide.

We anticipate one more rate hike within the year, although the trajectory thereafter remains highly uncertain. Data from CME indicates that following this meeting, market expectations suggest further increases in October 2026, January 2027, and April 2027, reaching a range of 4.25%—4.5%. Expectations for the pace of rate hikes have shifted earlier compared to before the meeting, though there appears to be a consensus on maintaining rates in the 4.25%—4.5% range into 2027. In a baseline scenario, we expect the Fed to raise rates by another 25 basis points in December 2026, bringing the range to 4.00%—4.25%. The future path of interest rates in 2027 and beyond will depend on several factors, including developments in the Middle East and oil prices, ongoing AI capital expenditures, and whether there will be substantial corrections in U.S. equities.

The resumption of rate hikes by the Fed introduces ongoing risks for rising bond yields and greater uncertainty for the "AI bull market" in equities. In the bond market, while the heightened expectations of rate hikes are one driver of upward pressures on long-term yields, multiple factors have already placed these yields on an upward trend. There may be ongoing speculation and anxiety regarding the Fed's future rate hiking pace, which could elevate term premiums, resulting in persistently high long-term U.S. Treasury yields. In terms of equities, the high rate environment's potential impact on the "AI bull market" warrants further scrutiny. Recently, rising concerns regarding AI safety and risk issues have triggered tighter regulatory scrutiny and worries about slowed industry growth, suggesting that optimistic expectations for AI may face temporary setbacks. Under these circumstances, the resilience of the "AI bull market" against high interest rates has become more uncertain. 球友会

What implications does the rate hike have for the Chinese economy? While China's economic and financial markets face some pressures, the overall impact remains manageable. The Fed's rate hike could affect China primarily through interest rate differentials, external demand, and market sentiment. First, U.S.-China interest rate differentials may create capital flow pressures, though the renminbi is expected to retain its resilience. China's inflation remains mild compared to the U.S., meaning that the inversion of real and nominal interest rate differentials may not be equivalent. Currently, China's export and capital market performances are generally positive, enhancing the attractiveness of renminbi assets, with less sensitivity from institutional funds to short-term interest rate fluctuations. Second, growth in external demand may encounter certain risks; if rate hikes dampen U.S. AI investment demand temporarily, this could have some impact on China's AI industry exports. Third, the A-share market might face occasional risks of emotional spillover, though it could also see independent performance. The trajectory of the A-share market will rely more on economic fundamentals and industry conditions rather than interest rate pressures. In the medium to long term, with potential incremental policies implemented and steady market investments, as well as accelerated corporate profit realization, the market is likely to withstand external shocks and pursue an independent trend.